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Us recession dating. The NBERs Business Cycle Dating Committee

Committre parks a BCDC do. By maintaining a chronology of business cycles, India will be certain to better monitor the economy. By maintaining a chronology of cleverness cycles, India will be able to better monitor the economy. By signing a chronology of business cycles, India will be able to better you the economy.

Speculation ranged from the sunspot cycles to climate and weather to the behavior of various economic actors. While these were not necessarily bound by a time schedule, both viewed cycles—regular up and down behavior—as a natural feature of economic behavior. It is not difficult to generate data that looks cyclical but is purely random. Economic behavior translates these shocks into what appear to be regular patterns in the data. This very powerful idea explains a lot of the mystery of business cycles—especially the fact that recessions seem to be almost completely unpredictable. So the accepted theory tells us that a shock will create the next recession.

Do we know what the shock will be and when it will occur?

Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

What we do know is this: The recent recession has set economists to look not at the shocks themselves, but at the economic and financial conditions when the shock hits. As an example, the Committee has identified the period from the first quarter in to the third quarter in as a recession, despite the fact that real GDP was growing in some quarters during that episode and that real GDP was higher at the end of the recession than at the beginning. As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for oreven though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity though not for two quarters. Subsequent data revisions have erased these declines.

First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but use a Te of indicators, notably employment. Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. The following period is an expansion. How long does the Committee expect the recession to last? The Committee does not forecast. How is the Committee's membership determined? The President and the Research Committee are ex officio members of the Committee. NBER is a private, non-profit, Committee organization conducting economic research and regarded as authoritative by both academic researchers and the public at large. The committee was created in and has been chaired by Robert Hall from Stanford University since its inception.

The committee waits long enough so that the existence of a peak or trough is not in doubt and does not follow a fixed time rule. CEPR dates the business cycle for the euro area as a whole and not for any individual country. Although the countries in the euro area have adopted a common monetary policy sincecountries have heterogeneous institutions and policies. Hence, some of the criteria of dating business cycles for CEPR differ from those for the NBER, although similar definitions of a recession are adopted by both these organizations. By maintaining a chronology of business cycles, India will be able to better monitor the economy.

A BCDC can also maintain an index of coincident, leading and lagging indicators for the Indian economy. Currently, India relies mostly on individual studies for the dating of business cycles. The Reserve Bank of India RBI set up a working group of economic indicators in and a technical advisory group TAG on the development of leading indicators for the Indian economy inboth under the chairmanship of R. The working group proposed a standing committee for business cycle analysis. Its job was the same as a BCDC, i.